Early Downs › Week 10

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions: Week 10 preview

• The New England Patriots (4-3) visit the Detroit Lions (4-2) on Sun, Nov 15 · 9:30 AM ET.
• The Patriots offense ranks 10th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Lions defense ranks 32nd (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Patriots edges: passing success rate, EPA per dropback, EPA per play. The Lions defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, opportunity rate, line yards per carry.
• The Lions offense ranks 3rd in EPA per play (+0.14); the Patriots defense ranks 18th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Lions edges: passing success rate, EPA per dropback, early-down EPA.
• Blitz watch: the Patriots blitz on 39% of dropbacks (6th most), but the Lions are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.38 EPA per dropback, 1st).
• Luck check: the Lions have been lucky (+3.6 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
• Pace: projected for about 133 total snaps, 4 more than a typical game.
• Weather: Indoors, so weather isn't a factor.