Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Week 11 preview

The Indianapolis Colts (2-5) visit the Houston Texans (2-5) on Thu, Nov 19 · 8:15 PM ET.
The Colts offense ranks 27th in EPA per play (−0.06); the Texans defense ranks 24th (+0.05 allowed). Biggest Colts edges: EPA per designed run, stuff rate, rushing success rate. The Texans defense holds the edge in passing success rate, sack rate, havoc rate.
The Texans offense ranks 13th in EPA per play (+0.03); the Colts defense ranks 21st (+0.03 allowed). Biggest Texans edges: havoc rate, early-down EPA, yards per dropback. The Colts defense holds the edge in 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, explosive run rate, average 3rd-down distance.
Luck check: the Colts have been a bit unlucky (−1.0 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Texans have been a bit lucky (+1.2 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 129 total snaps, close to a typical game.