New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 12 preview

The New Orleans Saints (2-5) visit the Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) on Sun, Nov 29 · 1:00 PM ET.
The Saints offense ranks 21st in EPA per play (−0.03); the Bengals defense ranks 11th (−0.03 allowed). Biggest Saints edges: 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, passing success rate. The Bengals defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, line yards per carry, opportunity rate.
The Bengals offense ranks 6th in EPA per play (+0.11); the Saints defense ranks 26th (+0.08 allowed). Biggest Bengals edges: stuff rate, opportunity rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate. The Saints defense holds the edge in explosive run rate.
Luck check: the Saints have been unlucky (−2.4 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Bengals have been a bit lucky (+1.0 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 129 total snaps, close to a typical game.