Early Downs › Week 16

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: Week 16 preview

• The Buffalo Bills (5-1) visit the Denver Broncos (5-2) on Fri, Dec 25 · 4:30 PM ET.
• The Bills offense ranks 1st in EPA per play (+0.21); the Broncos defense ranks 4th (−0.05 allowed). Biggest Bills edges: explosive run rate, EPA per designed run, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate. The Broncos defense holds the edge in opportunity rate, sack rate, passing success rate.
• The Broncos offense ranks 23rd in EPA per play (−0.04); the Bills defense ranks 31st (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Broncos edges: sack rate, havoc rate, early-down EPA. The Bills defense holds the edge in opportunity rate, explosive run rate.
• Luck check: the Bills have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Broncos have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
• Pace: projected for about 133 total snaps, 4 more than a typical game.