Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: Week 16 preview

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) visit the Indianapolis Colts (2-5) on Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET.
The Bengals offense ranks 6th in EPA per play (+0.11); the Colts defense ranks 21st (+0.03 allowed). Biggest Bengals edges: stuff rate, line yards per carry, opportunity rate. The Colts defense holds the edge in explosive run rate.
The Colts offense ranks 27th in EPA per play (−0.06); the Bengals defense ranks 11th (−0.03 allowed). Biggest Colts edges: explosive run rate, EPA per designed run, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate. The Bengals defense holds the edge in havoc rate, EPA per dropback, early-down EPA.
Luck check: the Bengals have been a bit lucky (+1.0 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Colts have been a bit unlucky (−1.0 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 126 total snaps, 3 fewer than a typical game.