Early Downs › Week 16

New England Patriots at New York Jets: Week 16 preview

• The New England Patriots (4-3) visit the New York Jets (2-5) on Sun, Dec 27 · 1:00 PM ET.
• The Patriots offense ranks 10th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Jets defense ranks 17th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Patriots edges: average 3rd-down distance, passing success rate, EPA per dropback. The Jets defense holds the edge in EPA per designed run, explosive run rate, sack rate.
• The Jets offense ranks 16th in EPA per play (+0.01); the Patriots defense ranks 18th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Jets edges: explosive play rate, passing success rate, average 3rd-down distance. The Patriots defense holds the edge in sack rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, rushing success rate.
• Blitz watch: the Jets blitz on 38% of dropbacks (7th most), but the Patriots are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.18 EPA per dropback, 8th).
• Pace: projected for about 126 total snaps, 3 fewer than a typical game.