Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Week 17 preview

The Detroit Lions (4-2) visit the Chicago Bears (5-2) on Sun, Jan 3 · 4:25 PM ET.
The Lions offense ranks 3rd in EPA per play (+0.14); the Bears defense ranks 14th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Lions edges: early-down EPA, explosive play rate, yards per dropback. The Bears defense holds the edge in stuff rate, average 3rd-down distance, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate.
The Bears offense ranks 11th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Lions defense ranks 32nd (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Bears edges: explosive play rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, explosive pass rate. The Lions defense holds the edge in sack rate.
Blitz watch: the Bears blitz on 41% of dropbacks (4th most), but the Lions are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.38 EPA per dropback, 1st).
Luck check: the Lions have been lucky (+3.6 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 134 total snaps, 5 more than a typical game.