Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: Week 17 preview

The Indianapolis Colts (2-5) visit the Cleveland Browns (5-2) on Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET.
The Colts offense ranks 27th in EPA per play (−0.06); the Browns defense ranks 9th (−0.04 allowed). Biggest Colts edges: explosive run rate, rushing success rate, EPA per designed run. The Browns defense holds the edge in yards per dropback, havoc rate, EPA per dropback.
The Browns offense ranks 24th in EPA per play (−0.04); the Colts defense ranks 21st (+0.03 allowed). Biggest Browns edges: early-down EPA. The Colts defense holds the edge in 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, average 3rd-down distance, explosive run rate.
Luck check: the Colts have been a bit unlucky (−1.0 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Browns have been a bit unlucky (−0.9 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 127 total snaps, close to a typical game.