Early Downs › Week 17

Washington Commanders at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 17 preview

• The Washington Commanders (1-4-1) visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) on Sun, Jan 3 · 1:00 PM ET.
• The Commanders offense ranks 18th in EPA per play (−0.01); the Jaguars defense ranks 15th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Commanders edges: havoc rate, sack rate, yards per dropback. The Jaguars defense holds the edge in explosive run rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, EPA per designed run.
• The Jaguars offense ranks 5th in EPA per play (+0.12); the Commanders defense ranks 25th (+0.07 allowed). Biggest Jaguars edges: rushing success rate, EPA per dropback, non-explosive EPA per play.
• Luck check: the Commanders have been lucky (+1.5 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Jaguars have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
• Pace: projected for about 128 total snaps, close to a typical game.