Early Downs › Week 18

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Week 18 preview

• The New York Jets (2-5) visit the Buffalo Bills (5-1) on Sun, Jan 10 · 1:00 PM ET.
• The Jets offense ranks 16th in EPA per play (+0.01); the Bills defense ranks 31st (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Jets edges: passing success rate, EPA per play, EPA per dropback. The Bills defense holds the edge in stuff rate.
• The Bills offense ranks 1st in EPA per play (+0.21); the Jets defense ranks 17th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Bills edges: stuff rate, rushing success rate, EPA per dropback. The Jets defense holds the edge in sack rate.
• Blitz watch: the Jets blitz on 38% of dropbacks (7th most), but the Bills are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.34 EPA per dropback, 3rd).
• Luck check: the Bills have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
• Pace: projected for about 130 total snaps, close to a typical game.