Early Downs › Week 8

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: Week 8 preview

• The New England Patriots (4-3) visit the Miami Dolphins (1-5) on Sun, Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET. The line is Patriots −7 with a total of 43.5.
• The Patriots offense ranks 10th in EPA per play (+0.05); the Dolphins defense ranks 29th (+0.13 allowed). Biggest Patriots edges: passing success rate, yards per dropback, average 3rd-down distance. The Dolphins defense holds the edge in EPA per designed run, explosive run rate.
• The Dolphins offense ranks 26th in EPA per play (−0.05); the Patriots defense ranks 18th (+0.02 allowed). The Patriots defense holds the edge in sack rate, non-explosive EPA per play, rushing success rate.
• Luck check: the Dolphins have been a bit unlucky (−0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
• Pace: projected for about 122 total snaps, 7 fewer than a typical game.
• Weather watch: Drizzle, 83°F at kickoff (feels like 85°), 84% chance of rain, wind E 14 mph gusting to 17.