Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings: Week 9 preview

The Buffalo Bills (5-1) visit the Minnesota Vikings (6-0) on Mon, Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET. The line is Bills −2.5 with a total of 47.5.
The Bills offense ranks 1st in EPA per play (+0.21); the Vikings defense ranks 1st (−0.22 allowed). Biggest Bills edges: explosive run rate, explosive play rate. The Vikings defense holds the edge in sack rate, average 3rd-down distance, passing success rate.
The Vikings offense ranks 30th in EPA per play (−0.10); the Bills defense ranks 31st (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Vikings edges: explosive pass rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, explosive play rate. The Bills defense holds the edge in opportunity rate.
Blitz watch: the Vikings blitz on 71% of dropbacks (1st most), but the Bills are one of the best offenses against the blitz (+0.34 EPA per dropback, 3rd).
Luck check: the Bills have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Vikings have been lucky (+2.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 128 total snaps, close to a typical game.
Weather: Indoors, so weather isn't a factor.