Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons: Week 9 preview

The Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) visit the Atlanta Falcons (3-4) on Sun, Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET. The line is Bengals −3 with a total of 49.5.
The Bengals offense ranks 6th in EPA per play (+0.11); the Falcons defense ranks 13th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Bengals edges: 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, average 3rd-down distance, sack rate. The Falcons defense holds the edge in explosive run rate, explosive play rate, explosive pass rate.
The Falcons offense ranks 22nd in EPA per play (−0.04); the Bengals defense ranks 11th (−0.03 allowed). Biggest Falcons edges: explosive run rate, explosive play rate, EPA per designed run. The Bengals defense holds the edge in non-explosive EPA per play, sack rate, EPA per dropback.
Luck check: the Bengals have been a bit lucky (+1.0 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Falcons have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 128 total snaps, close to a typical game.
Weather: Clear, 58°F at kickoff (feels like 54°), 34% chance of rain, wind SE 2 mph gusting to 11.