Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts: Week 9 preview

The Dallas Cowboys (3-4) visit the Indianapolis Colts (2-5) on Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET. The line is Cowboys −4.5 with a total of 51.5.
The Cowboys offense ranks 4th in EPA per play (+0.14); the Colts defense ranks 21st (+0.03 allowed). Biggest Cowboys edges: early-down EPA, EPA per designed run, sack rate. The Colts defense holds the edge in explosive play rate, explosive pass rate.
The Colts offense ranks 27th in EPA per play (−0.06); the Cowboys defense ranks 30th (+0.14 allowed). Biggest Colts edges: EPA per designed run, opportunity rate, 3rd/4th-down conversion rate.
Luck check: the Cowboys have been a bit unlucky (−1.3 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Colts have been a bit unlucky (−1.0 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 130 total snaps, close to a typical game.
Weather: Retractable roof. If open: Cloudy, 58°F at kickoff (feels like 52°), 11% chance of rain, wind S 7 mph gusting to 19.