Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: Week 9 preview

The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) visit the Baltimore Ravens (4-3) on Thu, Nov 5 · 8:15 PM ET. The line is Ravens −3 with a total of 48.5.
The Jaguars offense ranks 5th in EPA per play (+0.12); the Ravens defense ranks 19th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Jaguars edges: EPA per play, EPA per dropback, EPA per designed run. The Ravens defense holds the edge in opportunity rate.
The Ravens offense ranks 8th in EPA per play (+0.07); the Jaguars defense ranks 15th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Ravens edges: yards per dropback, passing success rate, havoc rate. The Jaguars defense holds the edge in 3rd/4th-down conversion rate, rushing success rate, explosive run rate.
Luck check: the Jaguars have been a bit lucky (+0.8 points per game from kicking and fumble luck); the Ravens have been a bit unlucky (−1.1 points per game from kicking and fumble luck).
Pace: projected for about 125 total snaps, 4 fewer than a typical game.
Weather watch: Drizzle, 66°F at kickoff (feels like 67°), 39% chance of rain, wind SE 14 mph gusting to 32.