Baylor at No. 9 BYU: Week 11 preview

Baylor (6-3) visits No. 9 BYU (7-2) on Sat, Nov 14 · TBD. The line is BYU −6.5 with a total of 48.5.
SP+ power ratings: Baylor 8.5 (43rd), BYU 16.7 (13th). SP+ projects BYU by 10.7, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Baylor offense ranks 69th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.11); the BYU defense ranks 47th (+0.07 allowed). Biggest Baylor edges: explosiveness, power success rate. The BYU defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry, passing success rate, standard-downs success rate.
The BYU offense ranks 38th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.18); the Baylor defense ranks 13th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest BYU edges: rushing explosiveness. The Baylor defense holds the edge in stuff rate, line yards per carry, passing-downs success rate.
Schedule: BYU has faced the tougher slate so far (23rd toughest, opp. SP+ +8.1, vs. 63rd toughest, opp. SP+ +2.1 for Baylor), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 138 total snaps in regulation (+6.0 vs. the FBS average of 132), faster than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 63°F at kickoff (feels like 57°), 4% chance of rain, wind SW 2 mph gusting to 5.