Duke at No. 1 Miami: Week 11 preview

Duke (7-2) visits No. 1 Miami (8-1) on Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET. The line is Miami −15.5 with a total of 54.5.
SP+ power ratings: Duke 6.8 (47th), Miami 24.7 (5th). SP+ projects Miami by 20.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Duke offense ranks 18th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.24); the Miami defense ranks 85th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Duke edges: explosiveness, EPA per pass, passing success rate. The Miami defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, line yards per carry, passing explosiveness.
The Miami offense ranks 4th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.35); the Duke defense ranks 25th (+0.01 allowed). Biggest Miami edges: standard-downs success rate, passing success rate, stuff rate. The Duke defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, second-level yards per carry, passing explosiveness.
Schedule: Miami has faced the tougher slate so far (50th toughest, opp. SP+ +4.0, vs. 77th toughest, opp. SP+ −0.8 for Duke), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 130 total snaps in regulation (-1.5 vs. the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather watch: Clear, 67°F at kickoff (feels like 59°), 3% chance of rain, wind NW 17 mph gusting to 22.