No. 24 Florida at No. 6 Kentucky: Week 11 preview

No. 24 Florida (5-4) visits No. 6 Kentucky (7-2) on Sat, Nov 14 · TBD. The line is Kentucky −2.5 with a total of 53.5.
SP+ power ratings: Florida 10.6 (31st), Kentucky 10.6 (31st). SP+ projects Kentucky by 2.5, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Florida offense ranks 42nd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.17); the Kentucky defense ranks 56th (+0.08 allowed). Biggest Florida edges: passing-downs success rate, passing success rate, success rate. The Kentucky defense holds the edge in stuff rate, power success rate, line yards per carry.
The Kentucky offense ranks 56th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.14); the Florida defense ranks 90th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Kentucky edges: power success rate, success rate, rushing success rate. The Florida defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness, explosiveness, sack rate.
Schedule: comparable so far (Florida 2nd toughest, opp. SP+ +12.6; Kentucky 6th toughest, opp. SP+ +10.3), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 132 total snaps in regulation (in line with the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Cloudy, 43°F at kickoff (feels like 33°), 0% chance of rain, wind NW 14 mph gusting to 22.