Illinois at No. 8 UCLA: Week 11 preview

Illinois (6-3) visits No. 8 UCLA (9-0) on Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET. The line is UCLA −9.5 with a total of 47.5.
SP+ power ratings: Illinois 6.8 (47th), UCLA 14.4 (17th). SP+ projects UCLA by 10.1, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Illinois offense ranks 31st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.19); the UCLA defense ranks 2nd (−0.17 allowed). Biggest Illinois edges: passing explosiveness, sack rate, explosiveness. The UCLA defense holds the edge in EPA per rush, rushing success rate, second-level yards per carry.
The UCLA offense ranks 43rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.16); the Illinois defense ranks 126th (+0.26 allowed). Biggest UCLA edges: line yards per carry, success rate, sack rate. The Illinois defense holds the edge in explosiveness.
Schedule: Illinois has faced the tougher slate so far (33rd toughest, opp. SP+ +6.6, vs. 71st toughest, opp. SP+ +0.5 for UCLA), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 129 total snaps in regulation (-2.9 vs. the FBS average of 132), a bit slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Cloudy, 76°F at kickoff (feels like 72°), 12% chance of rain, wind W 3 mph gusting to 3.