Michigan at No. 23 Oregon: Week 11 preview

Michigan (5-4) visits No. 23 Oregon (6-3) on Sat, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET. The line is Oregon −9.5 with a total of 41.5.
SP+ power ratings: Michigan 11.5 (27th), Oregon 17.0 (12th). SP+ projects Oregon by 8.0, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Michigan offense ranks 91st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.06); the Oregon defense ranks 39th (+0.05 allowed). Biggest Michigan edges: stuff rate, rushing explosiveness. The Oregon defense holds the edge in standard-downs success rate, second-level yards per carry, rushing success rate.
The Oregon offense ranks 88th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.07); the Michigan defense ranks 4th (−0.08 allowed). Biggest Oregon edges: passing explosiveness. The Michigan defense holds the edge in line yards per carry, EPA per rush, second-level yards per carry.
Schedule watch: Oregon has faced a much tougher schedule (1st toughest, opp. SP+ +14.6) than Michigan (58th toughest, opp. SP+ +2.8). That's a big gap: Oregon's numbers came against better opponents, so they may undersell Oregon next to Michigan.
Pace: projected for about 128 total snaps in regulation (-3.3 vs. the FBS average of 132), a bit slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather watch: Cloudy, 61°F at kickoff (feels like 58°), 53% chance of rain, wind S 2 mph gusting to 7.