Northwestern at No. 12 Ohio State: Week 11 preview

Northwestern (6-3) visits No. 12 Ohio State (6-3) on Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET. The line is Ohio State −10.5 with a total of 47.5.
SP+ power ratings: Northwestern 13.7 (20th), Ohio State 28.6 (1st). SP+ projects Ohio State by 17.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Northwestern offense ranks 11th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.26); the Ohio State defense ranks 23rd (+0.00 allowed). Biggest Northwestern edges: passing-downs success rate, rushing explosiveness, explosiveness. The Ohio State defense holds the edge in stuff rate, power success rate.
The Ohio State offense ranks 22nd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.23); the Northwestern defense ranks 42nd (+0.05 allowed). Biggest Ohio State edges: success rate, standard-downs success rate, passing success rate.
Schedule: comparable so far (Northwestern 54th toughest, opp. SP+ +3.8; Ohio State 42nd toughest, opp. SP+ +5.7), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 131 total snaps in regulation (in line with the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 41°F at kickoff (feels like 30°), 4% chance of rain, wind NW 14 mph gusting to 22.