Oregon State at No. 25 Boise State: Week 11 preview

Oregon State (5-4) visits No. 25 Boise State (8-1) on Sat, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM ET. The line is Boise State −4.5 with a total of 62.5.
SP+ power ratings: Oregon State 6.6 (50th), Boise State 10.9 (29th). SP+ projects Boise State by 6.8, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Oregon State offense ranks 24th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.22); the Boise State defense ranks 67th (+0.10 allowed). Biggest Oregon State edges: passing-downs success rate, EPA per rush, explosiveness.
The Boise State offense ranks 2nd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.36); the Oregon State defense ranks 99th (+0.18 allowed). Biggest Boise State edges: EPA per rush, EPA per play, passing success rate.
Schedule: comparable so far (Oregon State 84th toughest, opp. SP+ −2.5; Boise State 76th toughest, opp. SP+ −0.8), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 133 total snaps in regulation (+1.5 vs. the FBS average of 132), a bit faster than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 65°F at kickoff (feels like 55°), 11% chance of rain, wind SE 14 mph gusting to 24.