No. 20 USC at No. 4 Indiana: Week 11 preview

No. 20 USC (7-2) visits No. 4 Indiana (8-1) on Sat, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET. The line is Indiana −7 with a total of 49.5.
SP+ power ratings: USC 14.2 (18th), Indiana 24.2 (6th). SP+ projects Indiana by 12.5, including 2.5 points of home field.
The USC offense ranks 14th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.25); the Indiana defense ranks 15th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest USC edges: passing-downs success rate, explosiveness. The Indiana defense holds the edge in power success rate, EPA per rush, line yards per carry.
The Indiana offense ranks 16th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.24); the USC defense ranks 72nd (+0.12 allowed). Biggest Indiana edges: passing explosiveness, EPA per pass, explosiveness. The USC defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry, rushing success rate, rushing explosiveness.
Schedule: comparable so far (USC 31st toughest, opp. SP+ +6.7; Indiana 27th toughest, opp. SP+ +7.0), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 127 total snaps in regulation (-4.2 vs. the FBS average of 132), slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Clear, 46°F at kickoff (feels like 36°), 0% chance of rain, wind NW 12 mph gusting to 15.