No. 3 Utah at No. 22 Arizona: Week 11 preview

No. 3 Utah (9-0) visits No. 22 Arizona (7-2) on Sat, Nov 14 · TBD. The line is Utah −2.5 with a total of 52.5.
SP+ power ratings: Utah 18.0 (10th), Arizona 16.0 (14th). SP+ projects Arizona by 0.5, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Utah offense ranks 8th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.28); the Arizona defense ranks 29th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Utah edges: rushing explosiveness, passing-downs success rate, second-level yards per carry. The Arizona defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness, stuff rate.
The Arizona offense ranks 17th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.24); the Utah defense ranks 22nd (+0.00 allowed). Biggest Arizona edges: explosiveness, passing explosiveness, passing-downs success rate. The Utah defense holds the edge in stuff rate, rushing success rate, standard-downs success rate.
Schedule: comparable so far (Utah 55th toughest, opp. SP+ +3.1; Arizona 70th toughest, opp. SP+ +1.2), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 134 total snaps in regulation (+2.2 vs. the FBS average of 132), a bit faster than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Cloudy, 79°F at kickoff (feels like 72°), 32% chance of rain, wind S 10 mph gusting to 19.