No. 16 Wake Forest at SMU: Week 11 preview

No. 16 Wake Forest (8-1) visits SMU (7-2) on Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET. The line is Wake Forest −2.5 with a total of 61.5.
SP+ power ratings: Wake Forest 12.2 (25th), SMU 13.4 (21st). SP+ projects SMU by 3.7, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Wake Forest offense ranks 1st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.37); the SMU defense ranks 87th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Wake Forest edges: EPA per rush, rushing success rate, EPA per play.
The SMU offense ranks 19th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.23); the Wake Forest defense ranks 40th (+0.05 allowed). Biggest SMU edges: passing success rate, sack rate, EPA per pass. The Wake Forest defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, stuff rate, explosiveness.
Schedule: comparable so far (Wake Forest 75th toughest, opp. SP+ −0.3; SMU 73rd toughest, opp. SP+ +0.4), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 133 total snaps in regulation (+1.5 vs. the FBS average of 132), a bit faster than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Clear, 57°F at kickoff (feels like 49°), 1% chance of rain, wind S 10 mph gusting to 10.