No. 22 Arizona at Kansas State: Week 12 preview

No. 22 Arizona (7-2) visits Kansas State (4-5) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Arizona 15.4 (21st), Kansas State 4.5 (53rd). SP+ projects Arizona by 8.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Arizona offense ranks 17th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.24); the Kansas State defense ranks 117th (+0.22 allowed). Biggest Arizona edges: explosiveness, EPA per play, passing-downs success rate. The Kansas State defense holds the edge in sack rate, rushing success rate, power success rate.
The Kansas State offense ranks 70th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.11); the Arizona defense ranks 29th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Kansas State edges: power success rate, rushing explosiveness, sack rate. The Arizona defense holds the edge in EPA per pass, passing explosiveness, passing success rate.
Schedule: comparable so far (Arizona 72nd toughest, opp. SP+ +0.2; Kansas State 71st toughest, opp. SP+ +0.6), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 134 total snaps in regulation (+2.2 vs. the FBS average of 132), a bit faster than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Cloudy, 60°F at kickoff (feels like 58°), 46% chance of rain, wind W 9 mph gusting to 13.