Arkansas at No. 7 Texas: Week 12 preview

Arkansas (3-6) visits No. 7 Texas (7-2) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Arkansas -3.6 (88th), Texas 23.5 (5th). SP+ projects Texas by 29.6, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Arkansas offense ranks 108th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.03); the Texas defense ranks 12th (−0.02 allowed). The Texas defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, passing explosiveness, second-level yards per carry.
The Texas offense ranks 90th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.06); the Arkansas defense ranks 116th (+0.22 allowed). Biggest Texas edges: rushing success rate, second-level yards per carry, standard-downs success rate. The Arkansas defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, explosiveness.
Schedule: comparable so far (Arkansas 4th toughest, opp. SP+ +12.2; Texas 6th toughest, opp. SP+ +10.7), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 132 total snaps in regulation (in line with the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Drizzle, 77°F at kickoff (feels like 74°), 40% chance of rain, wind NW 12 mph gusting to 20.