No. 19 Iowa at Illinois: Week 12 preview

No. 19 Iowa (7-2) visits Illinois (6-3) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Iowa 16.4 (16th), Illinois 8.0 (43rd). SP+ projects Iowa by 5.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Iowa offense ranks 87th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.07); the Illinois defense ranks 126th (+0.26 allowed). Biggest Iowa edges: sack rate, passing success rate, success rate. The Illinois defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness, explosiveness.
The Illinois offense ranks 31st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.19); the Iowa defense ranks 24th (+0.01 allowed). Biggest Illinois edges: EPA per pass. The Iowa defense holds the edge in EPA per rush, rushing success rate, power success rate.
Schedule: comparable so far (Iowa 48th toughest, opp. SP+ +4.6; Illinois 30th toughest, opp. SP+ +6.7), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 127 total snaps in regulation (-4.5 vs. the FBS average of 132), slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather watch: Drizzle, 60°F at kickoff (feels like 56°), 29% chance of rain, wind SE 15 mph gusting to 33.