No. 4 Indiana at Washington: Week 12 preview

No. 4 Indiana (8-1) visits Washington (5-4) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Indiana 23.5 (5th), Washington 8.9 (40th). SP+ projects Indiana by 12.1, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Indiana offense ranks 16th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.24); the Washington defense ranks 38th (+0.04 allowed). Biggest Indiana edges: explosiveness, passing explosiveness, sack rate. The Washington defense holds the edge in power success rate, rushing success rate, passing-downs success rate.
The Washington offense ranks 85th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.07); the Indiana defense ranks 14th (−0.02 allowed). The Indiana defense holds the edge in EPA per rush, line yards per carry, sack rate.
Schedule: comparable so far (Indiana 41st toughest, opp. SP+ +5.5; Washington 49th toughest, opp. SP+ +4.5), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 127 total snaps in regulation (-4.9 vs. the FBS average of 132), slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Drizzle, 50°F at kickoff (feels like 46°), 42% chance of rain, wind SW 8 mph gusting to 17.