Maryland at No. 20 USC: Week 12 preview

Maryland (3-6) visits No. 20 USC (7-2) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Maryland -2.1 (79th), USC 15.8 (18th). SP+ projects USC by 20.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Maryland offense ranks 98th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.05); the USC defense ranks 72nd (+0.12 allowed). Biggest Maryland edges: explosiveness. The USC defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry, line yards per carry, rushing success rate.
The USC offense ranks 14th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.25); the Maryland defense ranks 114th (+0.21 allowed). Biggest USC edges: passing-downs success rate, passing success rate, success rate. The Maryland defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness.
Schedule: comparable so far (Maryland 23rd toughest, opp. SP+ +7.6; USC 36th toughest, opp. SP+ +6.1), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 130 total snaps in regulation (-1.6 vs. the FBS average of 132), a bit slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Cloudy, 69°F at kickoff (feels like 62°), 12% chance of rain, wind S 6 mph gusting to 6.