No. 23 Oregon at Michigan State: Week 12 preview

No. 23 Oregon (6-3) visits Michigan State (3-6) on Fri, Nov 20 · 8:00 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: Oregon 16.9 (15th), Michigan State -2.4 (83rd). SP+ projects Oregon by 16.8, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Oregon offense ranks 88th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.07); the Michigan State defense ranks 84th (+0.14 allowed). Biggest Oregon edges: passing explosiveness, sack rate. The Michigan State defense holds the edge in stuff rate, EPA per rush, passing success rate.
The Michigan State offense ranks 129th in FBS in EPA per play (−0.04); the Oregon defense ranks 39th (+0.05 allowed). The Oregon defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry, EPA per pass, EPA per play.
Schedule: Oregon has faced the tougher slate so far (1st toughest, opp. SP+ +15.5, vs. 14th toughest, opp. SP+ +9.4 for Michigan State), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 132 total snaps in regulation (in line with the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Drizzle, 51°F at kickoff (feels like 48°), 16% chance of rain, wind SE 9 mph gusting to 21.