San Diego State at No. 25 Boise State: Week 12 preview

San Diego State (4-5) visits No. 25 Boise State (8-1) on Sat, Nov 21 · 9:30 PM ET.
SP+ power ratings: San Diego State -8.4 (102nd), Boise State 13.8 (26th). SP+ projects Boise State by 24.7, including 2.5 points of home field.
The San Diego State offense ranks 115th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.01); the Boise State defense ranks 66th (+0.10 allowed). Biggest San Diego State edges: passing explosiveness, explosiveness, rushing explosiveness. The Boise State defense holds the edge in standard-downs success rate, power success rate, success rate.
The Boise State offense ranks 2nd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.36); the San Diego State defense ranks 86th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Boise State edges: power success rate, stuff rate, line yards per carry.
Schedule: comparable so far (San Diego State 56th toughest, opp. SP+ +3.2; Boise State 70th toughest, opp. SP+ +0.8), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 133 total snaps in regulation (+1.4 vs. the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Cloudy, 46°F at kickoff (feels like 40°), 16% chance of rain, wind E 9 mph gusting to 17.