SMU at No. 11 Notre Dame: Week 12 preview

SMU (7-2) visits No. 11 Notre Dame (8-1) on Sat, Nov 21 · 7:30 PM ET. The line is Notre Dame −17.5 with a total of 56.5.
SP+ power ratings: SMU 15.8 (18th), Notre Dame 24.4 (2nd). SP+ projects Notre Dame by 11.1, including 2.5 points of home field.
The SMU offense ranks 20th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.23); the Notre Dame defense ranks 16th (−0.01 allowed). Biggest SMU edges: passing success rate, passing-downs success rate. The Notre Dame defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, explosiveness, EPA per rush.
The Notre Dame offense ranks 3rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.35); the SMU defense ranks 87th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Notre Dame edges: EPA per rush, EPA per play, rushing success rate. The SMU defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate.
Schedule: comparable so far (SMU 73rd toughest, opp. SP+ −0.2; Notre Dame 66th toughest, opp. SP+ +1.9), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 129 total snaps in regulation (-2.8 vs. the FBS average of 132), a bit slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather watch: Showers, 59°F at kickoff (feels like 54°), 32% chance of rain, wind SE 18 mph gusting to 36.