No. 15 Texas Tech at Baylor: Week 12 preview

No. 15 Texas Tech (8-1) visits Baylor (6-3) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Texas Tech 18.1 (13th), Baylor 13.3 (31st). SP+ projects Texas Tech by 2.3, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Texas Tech offense ranks 38th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.18); the Baylor defense ranks 13th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Texas Tech edges: second-level yards per carry, rushing explosiveness. The Baylor defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness, power success rate, sack rate.
The Baylor offense ranks 69th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.11); the Texas Tech defense ranks 36th (+0.04 allowed). Biggest Baylor edges: explosiveness, passing explosiveness. The Texas Tech defense holds the edge in standard-downs success rate, second-level yards per carry, rushing success rate.
Schedule: comparable so far (Texas Tech 68th toughest, opp. SP+ +1.5; Baylor 69th toughest, opp. SP+ +1.3), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 145 total snaps in regulation (+13.2 vs. the FBS average of 132), faster than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Clear, 76°F at kickoff (feels like 72°), 39% chance of rain, wind NW 12 mph gusting to 21.