No. 8 UCLA at Michigan: Week 12 preview

No. 8 UCLA (9-0) visits Michigan (5-4) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: UCLA 20.2 (11th), Michigan 10.0 (36th). SP+ projects UCLA by 7.7, including 2.5 points of home field.
The UCLA offense ranks 44th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.16); the Michigan defense ranks 4th (−0.08 allowed). Biggest UCLA edges: passing explosiveness. The Michigan defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, explosiveness, passing success rate.
The Michigan offense ranks 91st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.06); the UCLA defense ranks 2nd (−0.17 allowed). Biggest Michigan edges: power success rate. The UCLA defense holds the edge in standard-downs success rate, second-level yards per carry, rushing success rate.
Schedule: comparable so far (UCLA 78th toughest, opp. SP+ −0.6; Michigan 63rd toughest, opp. SP+ +2.2), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 124 total snaps in regulation (-7.2 vs. the FBS average of 132), slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather watch: Partly cloudy, 64°F at kickoff (feels like 60°), 16% chance of rain, wind S 13 mph gusting to 27.