No. 6 Kentucky at No. 18 Missouri: Week 12 preview

No. 6 Kentucky (7-2) visits No. 18 Missouri (6-3) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Kentucky 8.3 (41st), Missouri 13.7 (28th). SP+ projects Missouri by 7.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Kentucky offense ranks 57th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.14); the Missouri defense ranks 27th (+0.02 allowed). The Missouri defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, passing explosiveness, sack rate.
The Missouri offense ranks 60th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.13); the Kentucky defense ranks 54th (+0.08 allowed). Biggest Missouri edges: sack rate, passing success rate. The Kentucky defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry, power success rate, standard-downs success rate.
Schedule: Kentucky has faced the tougher slate so far (7th toughest, opp. SP+ +10.3, vs. 44th toughest, opp. SP+ +5.2 for Missouri), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 132 total snaps in regulation (in line with the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Cloudy, 61°F at kickoff (feels like 61°), 41% chance of rain, wind S 7 mph gusting to 15.