No. 3 Utah at TCU: Week 12 preview

No. 3 Utah (9-0) visits TCU (4-5) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Utah 21.5 (9th), TCU 7.9 (44th). SP+ projects Utah by 11.1, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Utah offense ranks 9th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.28); the TCU defense ranks 8th (−0.04 allowed). The TCU defense holds the edge in stuff rate, passing explosiveness, power success rate.
The TCU offense ranks 109th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.03); the Utah defense ranks 22nd (+0.00 allowed). Biggest TCU edges: explosiveness, passing explosiveness. The Utah defense holds the edge in EPA per rush, rushing success rate, EPA per play.
Schedule: comparable so far (Utah 60th toughest, opp. SP+ +2.4; TCU 38th toughest, opp. SP+ +5.8), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 131 total snaps in regulation (in line with the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Mostly clear, 73°F at kickoff (feels like 67°), 39% chance of rain, wind W 13 mph gusting to 16.