Vanderbilt at No. 24 Florida: Week 12 preview

Vanderbilt (4-5) visits No. 24 Florida (5-4) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Vanderbilt -1.5 (78th), Florida 5.9 (47th). SP+ projects Florida by 9.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Vanderbilt offense ranks 97th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.05); the Florida defense ranks 90th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Vanderbilt edges: passing success rate, passing-downs success rate, EPA per pass. The Florida defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry, EPA per rush, sack rate.
The Florida offense ranks 43rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.17); the Vanderbilt defense ranks 95th (+0.16 allowed). Biggest Florida edges: passing success rate, EPA per pass, EPA per play. The Vanderbilt defense holds the edge in line yards per carry, rushing explosiveness.
Schedule: Florida has faced the tougher slate so far (2nd toughest, opp. SP+ +13.1, vs. 39th toughest, opp. SP+ +5.6 for Vanderbilt), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 133 total snaps in regulation (+1.2 vs. the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather: Cloudy, 78°F at kickoff (feels like 78°), 22% chance of rain, wind SE 9 mph gusting to 20.