Virginia Tech at No. 1 Miami: Week 12 preview

Virginia Tech (6-3) visits No. 1 Miami (8-1) on Sat, Nov 21 · TBD. The line is Miami −16.5 with a total of 56.5.
SP+ power ratings: Virginia Tech 6.6 (46th), Miami 24.0 (3rd). SP+ projects Miami by 19.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Virginia Tech offense ranks 40th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.17); the Miami defense ranks 85th (+0.15 allowed). Biggest Virginia Tech edges: passing-downs success rate, EPA per pass, explosiveness. The Miami defense holds the edge in line yards per carry, EPA per rush, second-level yards per carry.
The Miami offense ranks 4th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.35); the Virginia Tech defense ranks 92nd (+0.16 allowed). Biggest Miami edges: EPA per pass, EPA per play, passing success rate. The Virginia Tech defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness.
Schedule: Miami has faced the tougher slate so far (42nd toughest, opp. SP+ +5.3, vs. 83rd toughest, opp. SP+ −1.5 for Virginia Tech), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 132 total snaps in regulation (in line with the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.
Weather watch: Drizzle, 80°F at kickoff (feels like 77°), 45% chance of rain, wind E 17 mph gusting to 21.