Arizona State at No. 22 Arizona: Week 13 preview

Arizona State (5-4) visits No. 22 Arizona (7-2) on Sat, Nov 28 · TBD. The line is Arizona −4.5 with a total of 52.5.
SP+ power ratings: Arizona State 1.9 (65th), Arizona 15.4 (21st). SP+ projects Arizona by 16.0, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Arizona State offense ranks 123rd in FBS in EPA per play (−0.02); the Arizona defense ranks 29th (+0.02 allowed). Biggest Arizona State edges: second-level yards per carry. The Arizona defense holds the edge in EPA per pass, EPA per play, standard-downs success rate.
The Arizona offense ranks 17th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.24); the Arizona State defense ranks 41st (+0.05 allowed). Biggest Arizona edges: explosiveness, passing success rate, EPA per pass. The Arizona State defense holds the edge in line yards per carry, stuff rate, rushing success rate.
Schedule: Arizona State has faced the tougher slate so far (37th toughest, opp. SP+ +5.9, vs. 72nd toughest, opp. SP+ +0.2 for Arizona), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 136 total snaps in regulation (+4.2 vs. the FBS average of 132), faster than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.