Duke at No. 16 Wake Forest: Week 13 preview

Duke (7-2) visits No. 16 Wake Forest (8-1) on Sat, Nov 28 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Duke 13.0 (32nd), Wake Forest 20.0 (12th). SP+ projects Wake Forest by 9.5, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Duke offense ranks 18th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.24); the Wake Forest defense ranks 40th (+0.05 allowed). Biggest Duke edges: sack rate, passing success rate, rushing explosiveness. The Wake Forest defense holds the edge in passing explosiveness, rushing success rate, stuff rate.
The Wake Forest offense ranks 1st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.37); the Duke defense ranks 25th (+0.01 allowed). Biggest Wake Forest edges: standard-downs success rate, passing success rate, stuff rate.
Schedule: comparable so far (Duke 93rd toughest, opp. SP+ −3.2; Wake Forest 82nd toughest, opp. SP+ −1.3), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 131 total snaps in regulation (in line with the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.