Louisville at No. 6 Kentucky: Week 13 preview

Louisville (6-3) visits No. 6 Kentucky (7-2) on Sat, Nov 28 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Louisville 17.7 (14th), Kentucky 8.3 (41st). SP+ projects Louisville by 6.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Louisville offense ranks 6th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.32); the Kentucky defense ranks 54th (+0.08 allowed). Biggest Louisville edges: success rate, rushing success rate, passing success rate. The Kentucky defense holds the edge in stuff rate, passing explosiveness.
The Kentucky offense ranks 57th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.14); the Louisville defense ranks 48th (+0.08 allowed). Biggest Kentucky edges: stuff rate, power success rate, rushing success rate. The Louisville defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, explosiveness, sack rate.
Schedule: Kentucky has faced the tougher slate so far (7th toughest, opp. SP+ +10.3, vs. 55th toughest, opp. SP+ +3.5 for Louisville), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 133 total snaps in regulation (+1.6 vs. the FBS average of 132), a bit faster than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.