Michigan at No. 12 Ohio State: Week 13 preview

Michigan (5-4) visits No. 12 Ohio State (6-3) on Sat, Nov 28 · 12:00 PM ET. The line is Ohio State −13.5 with a total of 46.5.
SP+ power ratings: Michigan 10.0 (36th), Ohio State 24.0 (3rd). SP+ projects Ohio State by 16.5, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Michigan offense ranks 91st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.06); the Ohio State defense ranks 23rd (+0.00 allowed). Biggest Michigan edges: passing-downs success rate, rushing explosiveness. The Ohio State defense holds the edge in standard-downs success rate, rushing success rate, EPA per rush.
The Ohio State offense ranks 22nd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.23); the Michigan defense ranks 4th (−0.08 allowed). Biggest Ohio State edges: passing explosiveness. The Michigan defense holds the edge in power success rate, rushing explosiveness, second-level yards per carry.
Schedule: Ohio State has faced the tougher slate so far (31st toughest, opp. SP+ +6.7, vs. 63rd toughest, opp. SP+ +2.2 for Michigan), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 126 total snaps in regulation (-5.3 vs. the FBS average of 132), slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.