Mississippi State at No. 10 Ole Miss: Week 13 preview

Mississippi State (4-5) visits No. 10 Ole Miss (6-3) on Fri, Nov 27 · 12:00 PM ET. The line is Ole Miss −14.5 with a total of 57.5.
SP+ power ratings: Mississippi State 3.8 (56th), Ole Miss 13.5 (30th). SP+ projects Ole Miss by 12.2, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Mississippi State offense ranks 81st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.09); the Ole Miss defense ranks 102nd (+0.18 allowed). Biggest Mississippi State edges: passing-downs success rate. The Ole Miss defense holds the edge in stuff rate, power success rate, sack rate.
The Ole Miss offense ranks 23rd in FBS in EPA per play (+0.22); the Mississippi State defense ranks 80th (+0.14 allowed). Biggest Ole Miss edges: passing success rate, passing-downs success rate, EPA per pass. The Mississippi State defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, explosiveness, passing explosiveness.
Schedule: comparable so far (Mississippi State 17th toughest, opp. SP+ +9.0; Ole Miss 10th toughest, opp. SP+ +9.9), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 138 total snaps in regulation (+5.9 vs. the FBS average of 132), faster than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.