Purdue at No. 4 Indiana: Week 13 preview

Purdue (3-6) visits No. 4 Indiana (8-1) on Sat, Nov 28 · TBD.
SP+ power ratings: Purdue -2.4 (83rd), Indiana 23.5 (5th). SP+ projects Indiana by 28.4, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Purdue offense ranks 50th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.15); the Indiana defense ranks 14th (−0.02 allowed). Biggest Purdue edges: explosiveness, rushing explosiveness, passing-downs success rate. The Indiana defense holds the edge in line yards per carry, power success rate, second-level yards per carry.
The Indiana offense ranks 16th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.24); the Purdue defense ranks 133rd (+0.30 allowed). Biggest Indiana edges: EPA per pass, explosiveness, passing explosiveness.
Schedule: Purdue has faced the tougher slate so far (5th toughest, opp. SP+ +11.2, vs. 41st toughest, opp. SP+ +5.5 for Indiana), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 126 total snaps in regulation (-5.1 vs. the FBS average of 132), slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.