TCU at No. 15 Texas Tech: Week 13 preview

TCU (4-5) visits No. 15 Texas Tech (8-1) on Thu, Nov 26 · 8:00 PM ET. The line is Texas Tech −16.5 with a total of 55.5.
SP+ power ratings: TCU 7.9 (44th), Texas Tech 18.1 (13th). SP+ projects Texas Tech by 12.7, including 2.5 points of home field.
The TCU offense ranks 109th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.03); the Texas Tech defense ranks 36th (+0.04 allowed). Biggest TCU edges: explosiveness, passing explosiveness. The Texas Tech defense holds the edge in rushing success rate, line yards per carry, second-level yards per carry.
The Texas Tech offense ranks 38th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.18); the TCU defense ranks 8th (−0.04 allowed). The TCU defense holds the edge in power success rate, passing explosiveness, explosiveness.
Schedule: TCU has faced the tougher slate so far (38th toughest, opp. SP+ +5.8, vs. 68th toughest, opp. SP+ +1.5 for Texas Tech), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 136 total snaps in regulation (+4.2 vs. the FBS average of 132), faster than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.