No. 20 USC at No. 8 UCLA: Week 13 preview

No. 20 USC (7-2) visits No. 8 UCLA (9-0) on Sat, Nov 28 · TBD. The line is USC −10.5 with a total of 55.5.
SP+ power ratings: USC 15.8 (18th), UCLA 20.2 (11th). SP+ projects UCLA by 6.9, including 2.5 points of home field.
The USC offense ranks 14th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.25); the UCLA defense ranks 2nd (−0.17 allowed). Biggest USC edges: sack rate, passing explosiveness. The UCLA defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness, stuff rate, EPA per rush.
The UCLA offense ranks 44th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.16); the USC defense ranks 72nd (+0.12 allowed). Biggest UCLA edges: passing explosiveness, stuff rate, rushing success rate. The USC defense holds the edge in rushing explosiveness.
Schedule: USC has faced the tougher slate so far (36th toughest, opp. SP+ +6.1, vs. 78th toughest, opp. SP+ −0.6 for UCLA), a moderate edge.
Pace: projected for about 129 total snaps in regulation (-3.0 vs. the FBS average of 132), a bit slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.