Washington at No. 23 Oregon: Week 13 preview

Washington (5-4) visits No. 23 Oregon (6-3) on Sat, Nov 28 · TBD. The line is Oregon −15.5 with a total of 54.5.
SP+ power ratings: Washington 8.9 (40th), Oregon 16.9 (15th). SP+ projects Oregon by 10.5, including 2.5 points of home field.
The Washington offense ranks 85th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.07); the Oregon defense ranks 39th (+0.05 allowed). The Oregon defense holds the edge in passing-downs success rate, rushing success rate, line yards per carry.
The Oregon offense ranks 88th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.07); the Washington defense ranks 38th (+0.04 allowed). Biggest Oregon edges: explosiveness, sack rate, passing explosiveness. The Washington defense holds the edge in stuff rate, line yards per carry, EPA per rush.
Schedule watch: Oregon has faced a much tougher schedule (1st toughest, opp. SP+ +15.5) than Washington (49th toughest, opp. SP+ +4.5). That's a big gap: Oregon's numbers came against better opponents, so they may undersell Oregon next to Washington.
Pace: projected for about 132 total snaps in regulation (in line with the FBS average of 132), about average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.