Navy at Army: Week 15 preview

Navy (3-6) meets Army (5-4) at a neutral site on Sat, Dec 12 · 3:00 PM ET. The line is Navy −2.5 with a total of 37.5.
SP+ power ratings: Navy -3.1 (87th), Army -2.1 (79th). SP+ projects Army by 1.0.
The Navy offense ranks 54th in FBS in EPA per play (+0.14); the Army defense ranks 130th (+0.28 allowed). Biggest Navy edges: power success rate, EPA per pass, stuff rate.
The Army offense ranks 21st in FBS in EPA per play (+0.23); the Navy defense ranks 109th (+0.19 allowed). Biggest Army edges: power success rate, EPA per play, EPA per rush. The Navy defense holds the edge in second-level yards per carry.
Schedule: comparable so far (Navy 67th toughest, opp. SP+ +1.6; Army 76th toughest, opp. SP+ −0.6), so their numbers compare on even footing.
Pace: projected for about 126 total snaps in regulation (-6.1 vs. the FBS average of 132), slower than average. Single games vary a lot: most land within 12 snaps of the projection.